Social Modernism And Colonialism - 1364 Words

Present-day classifications of the East and West are still commanded by a colonial past. Postcolonial modernity lingers through its imperialist predecessors’ emphasis on firm distinctions between the rational self, versus the irrational other; these categories of dissimilarity remain between the self and the other; the colonizer and the colonized; and tradition and modernity. Through these groupings, secular hierarchies are able to thrive even after blatant colonization has ended. The dogma formerly imposed by colonizers is continually visible politically, culturally, and socially. On the political sphere the article by Jasbir K. Puar and Amit S. Rai illustrate the Western use of nationalism, which aims to portray a â€Å"terrorist† image of†¦show more content†¦As understood via Edward Said’s writing ‘On Orientalism’, in order to reinforce notions of normalcy in the occident, it is necessary to form the orient as its contrasting image. Puar and Rai’s â€Å"Monster, Terrorist, Fag,† examines the labels created by the modern West that aim to paint a â€Å"monster† persona in their study of Islamic extremism. Accordingly, the article states, â€Å"In these invocations of terrorist-monsters an absolute morality separates good from a ‘shadowy evil’†¦ this discourse marks off a figure †¦as the opposite of all that is just, human, and good† . By drawing comparisons between terrorists to monsters the Western dialogue this reiterates past insinuations of an â€Å"us versus them† approach. ‘Us’, or the occident, as the pure and good normal beings against ‘them’, the orient, as tyrannical and deviant radicals. Further, this strategy orders any type opposition as the enemy, whether it be to the nationalism or heteronormative ideals. In other words, it is an â€Å"if you are not with us, you are against us† outlook. However, an interesting a spect of Puar and Rai’s writing is that the predicament of the self and the other in the case of the United States had turned the concept against citizens within its nation. Postcolonial modernity has created an enemy within oneself; this affliction causes anShow MoreRelatedModern And Contemporary Arts Of Africa2955 Words   |  12 Pagescontinent from colonial rule, a time that occasioned the rise of new pride in and new searches for definitions of identities released from the colonial confines. In the twentieth century the politics of identity became salient in discourses, political, social, and cultural, on Africa. The idea of the diaspora was central to new conceptions on African art, often leading to the exclusion of artist residing in Africa in preference of those living in the nomadic condition. The forefront of Africa in modernityRead MoreModern Architecture in Japan and India1532 Words   |  6 Pagesviews and standards in juxtaposition to defining a modernity in a rchitecture that is reflective of culture. In the case of India the multicultural reflection of a broad social culture and in Japan the reflection of reinventing the post-modern and both nations with particular care to both embrace and reject aspects of colonialism that have shaped their history., The national trends in each nation deserve focus individually as they are two distinct models of development of architecture, albeit strugglingRead MorePolitical Science : Islamic Modernism1166 Words   |  5 Pagesideals, advocating for separation of religion and politics, complete rejection, and calls for armed struggle against Western powers. However, one of the major responses to western modernization and occupation of the Muslim world was Islamic modernism. Islamic modernism was an attempt to reach a medium between adaptation and rejection. Two influential proponents of this idea were Islamic reformers Jamal al-Din and his pupil Muhammad Abduh. They blamed the decline of Muslim societies and their occupationRead MoreEssay on Genocide and Reification3132 Words   |  13 Pagesthe external reification of others. This then, when put into certain contexts, can manifest itself in a projection of hate through genocide. Although reification is the process which explains genocide, other social movements, such as extreme nativism in the Rwandan genocide and extreme modernism in the Holocaust, help perpetuate widespread genocide. Internal reification of the Germans was projected into external reification in the form of hate of the Jewish people. Reification is a thought processRead MoreThe Theoretical Approach Towards Nationalism Essay1409 Words   |  6 PagesIntroduction Nationalism has been a very important issue tackled in the modern era. At first, it was seen from a positive standpoint, especially at a time when there was a struggle against colonialism. Apparently, every struggle for national independence had nationalist aspirations among the people as prerequisites. The theoretical approach towards nationalism, however, are varied. The variety is primarily the reason why there are such kinds of nationalism that lead into ethnic wars, ethnocentrismRead MoreAnalysis Of Wallace Nuttings Invention Of Old America875 Words   |  4 PagesNutting’s Invention of Old America, Thomas Denenberg uses Nutting’s brand of colonial idealism as a parallel with an American society on the precipice of social change at the turn of the century. He successfully provided the middle class an escape from the adversity of the â€Å"machine age†. Using Wallace Nutting as a tool to discuss anti-modernism, Denenberg explores the various ways Nutting inc orporated the neo-colonial lifestyle into a mainstream cult following in the early 1900’s. Denenberg’s treatmentRead MoreThe development of the novel in the 20th century1416 Words   |  6 PagesBritish Novel The turn of the century meant the end of the Victorian Era with the Queens death in 1901. The legacy of Darwin, the Victorian loss of Christian Faith, Socialism and the awareness of threat against Englands wealth increased the existing social discomfort. Apart from this, new discoveries such as Einsteins Special theory of Relativity (1905) and Freuds works Interpretation of Dreams (1900) and The Psychopathology of Everyday life (1901) were also important. As concerns Visual Arts, afterRead MoreDisgrace by J.M Coetzee1222 Words   |  5 PagesDisgrace as a novel explores colonialism and its aftermath by approaching various issues and themes, and some major ones are of body politics and the differences in experiences of the ‘post-colonizer’ and ‘post-colonized’. In this paper I will be looking at prospective analogies; the female body being a territory for colonial and post-colonial conquest and also the protagonist Lurie himself being symbolic of the colonia l enterprise whose power exists in residual. Beginning with the issue of bodyRead MoreIslamic Age And Western Influence On The Islamic World1437 Words   |  6 Pageswhich were the four schools of Sunni law. The four schools of Sunni law were the Hanafi School, the Maliki School, the Shafi’i School and the Hanabali School. This developed a â€Å"social class of scholars known as the Ulama.† (Ansary 98). The Ulama controlled everything such as the education system and courts and had incredible social power. While the Ulama dominated everything, they weren’t the only intellectuals of Islam. There were Philosophers. Greek philosophers invented geometry, science andRead MoreGlobalization Means Underaken Entirely805 Words   |  3 Pagespeople, but can be interpreted differently due to various dimensions based on the terms such as time and location. The term globalization has a wide complex and challenging effects that are mainly analyzed with its economic dimension taking cultural, social, political and historical facets as some references (Atkearney, 2007). 2. Historical Background: Globalization is one of the most fashionable concepts of today; in fact it’s not a product of 20th century. Trade is worldwide since the flint grit trade

Est 310.2.1-05 (Company Q) Free Essays

EST1 – Ethical Situations in Business A small local grocery stores disadvantages in a metropolitan areas EST1 Task 1 Being a small, local grocery store chain in a major metropolitan area does not come without its challenges. National and regional chains are frequently forcing small and locally owned stores to close their doors. For this reason, as well as the huge obligations to the social responsibilities required by their communities and customers alike pushes both the small business owner as well as the larger corporations to be able to adjust their organizations goals and objectives to balance not only their goal to be profit driven but to also be socially and ethically perceptive with the way they conduct business and operate their stores. We will write a custom essay sample on Est 310.2.1-05 (Company Q) or any similar topic only for you Order Now Recently Company Q has chosen to close two store locations that operated in areas where crime rates were statistically higher within the city. The store closures are being driven by consistent losses the stores experienced year over year. If the stores have consistently lost money year over year, we need to analyze the reasons as to why. To take the social responsible approach at analyzing this question; we would first need to understand our customer demographic for each of the geographical locations. For example, if one of our stores is located in a highly populated Hispanic neighborhood and we are promoting Ethnic Asian foods, we could not expect these foods to sell at the same rate as we would handmade corn tortillas. Taking an ethical and cultural marketing approach to sell foods that are Hispanic-centric strongly supports the business and ethical approach that would be needed for our store to successfully show a profit. When we stop to understand our customer demographics and their communities in which they live, we then can recognize what is needed for our business to prosper within the community. After many years of customer requests Company Q, began offering a limited selection of health conscience and organic products in their stores. Offering organic and environmentally friendly products in response to our customers’ requests is a large step in forming a social contract with our customers instead of merely offering then what we feel they need. Soliciting feedback from our customers provides us with the means to understand what they want and what they need. Offering a high end products to our customers that neither have the financial ability to afford the high costs that accompany high end products, nor do they have the desire to purchase these products to help Company Q’s bottom line. In fact it will actually drive our results in the opposite direction. Our product choices must be targets to the consumer within our communities. Ethnic foods must be customary to the neighborhoods in which they are being offered. The marketing of our stores in cultural or racially specific communities must be stocked with the products that meet the needs of our customers in those communities. It takes very minimal effort to understand our customers, but that minimal effort makes the difference between a store being successful or failing. There are multiple sources that can be used to help us understand our customer’s cultural and social desires. To gain a simple understanding of the cultural needs for a Hispanic – centric neighborhood can begin with a simple Google search on Hispanic Market Research. For example when preforming the following Google search we learned. â€Å"Market Research Hispanics† â€Å"According to the U. S. Census Bureau, the terms Hispanic (and Latino) refer to people â€Å"whose origins are from Spain, the Spanish-speaking countries of Central or South America, the Caribbean, or those identifying themselves generally as Spanish, Spanish-American, etc. Origin can be viewed as ancestry, nationality, or country of birth of the person or person’s parents or ancestors prior to their arrival in the United States. † Hispanics can be of any race. There are more than 48 million Hispanics in the United States. Latinos now account for 16% of the American population. The 32 million Latinos of Mexican origin account for around 66% of the Hispanic population. Hispanics accounted for more than half of all of the growth in the U. S. population that occurred between 2000 and 2009. Latinos also are expected to be responsible for more than half of the growth in the U. S. population between 2010 and 2015. With an estimated buying power of $616 billion, Latinos of Mexican heritage represent the single most influential segment of the Hispanic market. Mexicans in the United States account for 59% of all Hispanic buying power. On a per capita basis, however, Cubans are the most affluent of the major Hispanic population segments. Their per capita buying power is substantially higher than that of Mexicans ($32,724 vs. $19, 426). The vast majority (92%) of Hispanics under 18 were born in the United States as were about 47% of those 18 and over. Mexicans are most likely to be U. S. -born. More education leads to higher-paying jobs and increasing affluence among high-acculturation Latinos. High-acculturation Hispanics are more likely than their low-acculturation counterparts to work as managers and professionals (19% vs. 6%). They are twice as likely to have a household income of $75,000 or more (37% vs. 19%) and are much more likely to own their home (62% vs. 40%) (Census Bureau, 2012 www. marketresearch. om ). † Preforming a simple marketing search on the Hispanic cultural give us insight as to how we can begin to market and set ourselves apart in the marketplace. How we can currently target and begin to build a marketing strategy that will ensure the future growth and the economic sustainability of our stores within a Hispanic – centric neighborhood. Currently Company Q operates under the policy of disposing of day-old products, this a perfect example where our management team is missing out on a great public relations and corporate social responsibility opportunity. When approach by the area’s food bank to donate day-old products that would otherwise been thrown away, our management team declined. Management being more focused on the possible loss of revenue due to the potential increase in fraud and stealing that could be done its employees who could claim that that they were donating the food. One thing that we need to understand it the actual cost associated with and or the actual / perceived benefits. Our company will write –off any product that needs to be disposed of due to the shelf life expiration date. The products are disposed if in a dumpster and therefore currently ends the usefulness of the product from the company’s perspective. If we are paying for the products by weight or volume, we will incur a greater disposal rates from the waste removal company for the disposal of those unsellable products instead of donating them to a local food bank. This concern of a possible increase in expenses does not begin to look at the tax benefits that could be received by the donating of the product to a local food bank as well as other possible economic impacts that this policy can have on the economy of our community. Another concern that we need to be aware of is the impact that our policy to throw away on day-old products will have on employees moral. If we’ve communicated to our employees that we will not be socially contentious to our local communities, then what is the message that we are delivering to our employees since they are part of our communities. How will they relate that to how valued they feel as an employee for Company Q? In our technology and media driven society it would e foolish not to except a socially aware employee or customer to film the disposal of the food that we may have not been able to sell, but it could easily be donated to our local food banks to help those in need. The potential of the negative publicity and feedback from such an event would be devastating to a small chain stores such as ours. The above mention concerns addressed not only some of the potential financial impacts but also the possible social capital losses that we could face in our current po sition. Thankfully, we do not need to pay out much financially or in employee efforts to make a substantial difference in our stores and neighborhood communities. One delivery van can be used at the end of each day to deliver the products that would have otherwise been thrown away to our local food bank. The food can be unloaded by the food bank staff while the food bank manager shares with the Manager or Supervisor of our company the impacts that this donation will have on the community. This same information can be taken back and share with the store employees. The minimal time spent delivering and unloading the products daily at the local food banks in a minor change in the daily operations for the store, but will have an overall impact to the community that will consistently strengthen our relationship within in the local communities, our relationships with our employees as well as enhancing our brand across our chain of stores. References * Census Bureau (2012). Hispanic Market: market research reports. Marketresearch. com. Retrieved from http://www. marketresearch. com/Marketing-Market-Research-c70/Demographics-c81/Hispanic-Market-c1692/ How to cite Est 310.2.1-05 (Company Q), Papers

Balanced Persuasive Attempt in Marketing †MyAssignmenthelp.com

Question: Discuss about the Balanced Persuasive Attempt in Marketing. Answer: Introduction: As a consumer behavior expert, after going through the article written by Isaac, M. S., Grayson, K. (2017) Beyond skepticism: Can accessing persuasion knowledge bolster credibility? it is found that the consumer behavior is well justified in this article. The issues that has been proved or the finding of the article mainly states four important aspects. Firstly, When a credible tactics is used by an agent in pursuing a consumer, then there is a high access in the persuasion knowledge, which enhances the degree of favorable evaluation in a positive aspect of the agent as well as the goods or services that he offers (Block, 2016). Secondly, Strategies which are generally skepticism centric, in them, it is noticed that the increased probability of persuasion knowledge can direct to the revealing of the persuasive message which will make evaluation less favorable. Thirdly, Wider perspective in manipulation of persuasive knowledge has the capability of boosting evaluation in comparison t o the one that is controlled way of manipulating knowledge of persuasion (Ginsca, Popescu Lupu, 2015). Last but not the least, Persuasion knowledge which has a narrow perspective brings the sense of skepticism. These findings will initiate certain acceleration to the marketing strategy which will also have a positive effect on the sale of the goods and services of the organization. After the study of the above stated article certain things can be recommended to the organization. The implementation of these recommendations will help the organization to improve its marketing strategy which will further improve the outcomes. The first thing that can be recommended is that, the organization should use the strategy of persuasion which is more trust worthy and credible in nature to attain more positive result. Secondly if the company uses such strategies which will reveal the persuasive motive or message, then it may increase the level of skepticism and will make the work of persuasion more difficult (Ansari Kapoor, 2015). On the other hand, the organization should plan the communication in such a way that they only provide true details of the product or services that they want the customer to b uy. This will increase the strength of the organization as skepticism of the customer will not affect the sale of the product (Isaac Grayson, 2017). At the end, the organization should always think on ethical ground so that neither credibility nor skepticism can affect the marketing process and will also attract more number of customer or clients. Reference Ansari, M. A., Kapoor, A. (2015). Organizational context and upward influence tactics.Organizational behavior and human decision processes,40(1), 39-49. Block, N. (2016). The Anna Karenina principle and skepticism about unconscious perception.Philosophy and Phenomenological Research,93(2), 452-459. Ginsca, A. L., Popescu, A., Lupu, M. (2015). Credibility in information retrieval management.Foundations and Trends in Information Retrieval,9(5), 355-475. Isaac, M. S., Grayson, K. (2017). Beyond Skepticism: Can Accessing Persuasion Knowledge Bolster Credibility?.Journal of Consumer Research,43(6), 895-912.

Pob Sba Essay Example

Pob Sba Essay Principles of business s. b. a. Marketing Francis’ Breakfast and Lounge Name- School: School Code: Candidate # Subject: P. O. B Objectives We strive to survive the challenges of opening a new restaurant for the first year and a half especially in the tough economic times. We aim to become the leading restaurant in the local market after first 5 years of operations. Keeping food cost under 35% revenue. Keeping employee labor cost between  24-29% of revenue. Averaging sales between $325,000-375,000 per year. Achieve 12% 15% return on investment for the first two years and 15% 20% for the next three years. We also intend to curve the disturbing obesity and diabetes rate in St. Lucia especially in the capital. Mission Statement We are a great place to come enjoy a meal   combining an intriguing atmosphere with excellent,   our aim is not only to serve great tasting food but to ensure each of our valued customers receives prompt, professional and courteous service because customer satisfaction is paramount. We want to be the restaurant choice for all families and singles, young and old, male or female. Maintain a clean, comfortable and top of the line premises for our customers and staff alike. Delivering excellent treatment to our customers and staff, providing them with the respect and dignity the surely deserve, as Employee welfare will be equally important to our success. We will combine menu variety, atmosphere, ambiance and a friendly staff to create a relaxing atmosphere in order to reach our goal of over all value in the dining entertainment experience. We will write a custom essay sample on Pob Sba specifically for you for only $16.38 $13.9/page Order now We will write a custom essay sample on Pob Sba specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer We will write a custom essay sample on Pob Sba specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer We want to achieve fair profits, and a rewarding place to work for the employees. ORGANIZATION STRUCTURE Roles of Personnel General Manager- The General Manager is responsible for the success of a business and keep their restaurants operating at a profit. The general manager is also responsible for planning the business objectives, organizing therefore ensuring every that the business needs are available. Front manager-The front is responsible for advertising, staff and ordering of service. Maintains accurate records of the business ’ accounts. Monitors expenditures, and prepares monthly financial statements and administrative reports. They will be responsible for waiting tables, bartenders, waitresses and dishwashers, she will also oversee the overall upkeep of the restaurant. This person also handles one of our most essential roles of the business which is consumer complaints, responsible for receiving and handling every complaint which comes in and professionally Head Chef- The Head Chef is responsible for the operations of the kitchen. He or she decides what equipment and ingredients are needed. The Head Chef is also responsible for the menu. In addition, he or she is responsible for keeping the cost of the kitchen within a set budget, managing kitchen employees, forecasting trends in the restaurant, and maintaining the kitchen according to health codes of the area. Sous Chef- They are responsible for ensuring that everything runs smoothly whether or not the  head chef  is present. He or she takes over the operation of the kitchen in the absence of the head chef. Captain – The captain is a specially appointed member of staff with some experience in managing responsible for waiting tables and bartending and ake care of service and make sure the restaurant is in excellent shape. TARGET POPULATION Fregis’ Breakfast Lunch will focus on attracting a wide and diverse clientele ages 21-75 with an annual income of at least $25,000. We want the customers of an affluent nature high wage workers, couples, families and tourists, wealthy image seekers and compulsive spenders, people who think highly of themselves an d only want the best. We focus on these specific groups because these are the types of people who frequent other restaurants and bars in the area with a wealthy status. They are the ones that are willing to spend their money on good dining and service at a  great price. Pricing Strategy Our prices are arranged higher than most ordinary restaurants but below that of upper class restaurants to attract the customers of those restaurant. This strategy in use is the market oriented stragegy and have found out our target market seeks to pay more for their meals, therefore we are more likely to attract new customers as our prices are near the top of the price range but competitive with other restaurants in our class. Pricing We anticipate our total sales allocation  to be 80% restaurant sales and 20% catering sales. The combined cost of sales will be 40% producing a gross profit of 60% on total sales. Prices will be competitive with other upscale restaurants in the area. However, it is the strategy of Fregis’ Breakfast Lunch to give a perception of higher value than its competitors, through its food, service and entertainment. Competitors Ours main competitors are located right in the Rodney bay area only a few yards from our establishment, but with Fregis’ Breakfast Lunch being a new face in the market, we hope to appeal to customers to try out the restaurant hence trying to keep them after they have tried our product. There are two restaurants in the Rodney Bay area which are potential competitors they are: 1st a small restaurant opening from Sunday to Monday which serves lunches and dinners often filled with customers. The price ranges from $10-$20 for lunch and $10-40 for dinner 2nd an Italian restaurant serving food buffet style open on week days. Price are $75 per person Sale Forecast Monthly restaurant gross sales are to average $51,000 That is  36 people for lunch spending approximately $20 per person, and  for dinner approximately 29 people spending an average $25 per person. Catering will  average $7500 a month that is 3 contracted catering services. So we expect to average more than $600,000 yearly. Branding Lunch Linguine with Smoked Salmon Mangu Shrimp Scampi Shrimp and Green Bean Salad Crispy Seafood Salad with Citrus Vinaigrette Vegetable burger Mixed vegetable souffle Bar B Que ribs and green fig salad Soup Avocado Soup Tomato soup Ajiaco Appetizer Baked Ham Cheese  Quesadilla Cheese and Chutney Stuffed  Celery Broiled Barbecued Chicken  Wings consumer complaints In the case of a calm/neutral customer we tend to let the chef or captain handles these without the intervention of the front manager. Who tries to settle the issue to the best of their ability Though all complaints are recorded. In the case of a angry customer it is immediately transferred to the front manager who always make the customer feels that he/she is there to help them. The front manager always acts as prompt as possible, making the most reasonable decisions so that the customer feels satisfied.

Daily School Routine Essay Essays

Daily School Routine Essay Essays Daily School Routine Essay Paper Daily School Routine Essay Paper Life is an interesting escapade worth life. I enjoy every spot of my life and enjoy things around me such as. beautiful landscape. budding flowers. green scenery. admirations of scientific discipline seen in different signifiers. wonders of metropolis life. the leisure of free clip. . Though much of my day-to-day school is routine-based. yet the assortment and diverseness of day-to-day being make my day-to-day school routine an exciting escapade. Every individual on the planet has his ain life and duties. A batch of people have different day-to-day school modus operandis. Some of them have long twenty-four hours and others an easy twenty-four hours. But that depends on how many categories they have. The biggest job is the Time direction which is the act or procedure of planning and exerting witting control over the sum of clip spent on specific activities. But there are ways to pull off your life modus operandi. My day-to-day school modus operandi starts at place. First. I get up from bed early in the forenoon. I do my forenoon responsibilities. I wash my face and brush my dentitions. Then I take a small physical exercising. Following I dress myself to travel to school. I am neer tardily in go toing school. I take different topics and I ever try to listen to my instructors in the category. My day-to-day modus operandi is packed with school material these yearss. My yearss at school are Tuesday and Thursdays. The first category starts at 9:30 which is an ESL category with Mr. Dave Bruno that finishes at 10:45. Then I have my psychological science category it’s my favourite it. It starts at 11:00 to 12:15 with Mr. Mike Colbert. After that I have a interruption for 3 hours. so I go to hold tiffin with my friends’ . so my last categories is math with a amusing instructor. We call him General. School modus operandi can be difficult sometimes particularly during tests. Throughout the class of my ESL categories. English trials ever proved to be hard for me. I had problem retrieving footings and vocabulary. despite the fact that my memorisation accomplishments were rather capable. Indeed I had a instructor that sometimes surprise us with small quizzes. And no readying the odds of go throughing the unheralded trial were non slanted in my favour. Time direction is a phrase that I have lived by throughout parts of grade school. high school. and now college. I have been introduced to this because of the legion activities and sums of work that I have accumulated over the old ages. In high school. I had to equilibrate my clip from traveling to school. to pattern. and so to homework. I would seek to equilibrate out the work. but sometimes there was non adequate clip in the twenty-four hours to complete all of it. I rapidly learned that working in front of clip was cardinal to my success. I learned a batch about the common myths of clip direction and where I fall in the categorization of effectual clip direction. Time can non be managed ; it can merely be controlled by each single individual and the manner clip is directed. Scheduling is highly of import when it comes to pull offing the usage of clip. It is of import to pull off clip sagely. When clip is managed and organized sagely ; it can do the difference between a productive twenty-four hours and a really feverish twenty-four hours. Using clip direction during an ordinary twenty-four hours can assist cut down emphasis and simplifies life. Without have a program on how to pull off clip. it can make emphasis in life and besides burying of import day of the months and deadlines. By non holding some type of organisation in life it will make pandemonium and will look as if there is non adequate clip in one twenty-four hours to finish day-to-day undertakings. Time direction may be aided by a scope of accomplishments. tools. and techniques used to pull off clip when carry throughing specific undertakings. undertakings and ends following with a due day of the month. When I learn and maintain good clip direction accomplishments. I find freedom from deadline force per unit area and from emphasis in general. I am more productive. procrastinate less. and I have more clip to loosen up. which helps further lessening emphasis and anxiousness. Making a list. Set deadlines and Stoping multi-tasking are things I do to pull off my clip in school. I set reminders on my phone and computing machine. One of the most of import things is I make certain I list experience come-at-able. No 1 wants a 30-item to-do list and have to. at the terminal of the twenty-four hours. I look at the 20 points that I didn’t acquire done. Prioritize my and others’ demands and program consequently. I might even desire to do three lists - personal. place and school. Puting deadline. Again. there is no point in puting deadlines if I make executive determinations to ever force them back. Puting a deadline and seeking my best to lodge to it. This allows for the possibility that other things will acquire in the manner. but besides let for me still to acquire the undertaking done. Besides halting multi-tasking. Multitasks frequently seem to believe they get more complete. but it’s non ever the most productive or efficient path. my head work better when I am genuinely able to concentrate and concentrate on one thing. Daily school modus operandi makes the five dharma’s work for the organic structure. Actually. man’s lifetime can be 150 – 170 old ages or even more. Since we are go againsting hese Dharma. it has been reduced to 60-80 old ages. This modus operandi is non suggested to do you live for 100 old ages for certain. but to populate a healthy life. This Natural Life Style is a portion of Naturopath. Once you started clip direction schedule your organic structure is in good status and is ready for the Dharma of fast. Until you have been following this everyday for months. The natural lifestyle suits anyone and everyone – adult male or adult female. immature or old. chronic patient or ordinary individual. It requires merely a strong desire and inspiration to hold a sound organic structure. That’s more than plenty.

Use Elegant Variation in Your Resumé

Use Elegant Variation in Your Resumà © Use Elegant Variation in Your Resumà © Use Elegant Variation in Your Resumà © By Guest Author This is a guest post by Debra Wheatman. If you want to write for Daily Writing Tips check the guidelines here. W. Fowler coined the term â€Å"elegant variation† to denote the unnecessary use of synonyms to denote a single thing.   One of his examples was a newspaper excerpt in which the writer referred to the same person, the King of England, as Emperor, His Majesty, and the Monarch.   Fowler’s objection to this kind of â€Å"elegant variation† was that â€Å"the effect is to set readers wondering what the significance of the change is, only to conclude that there is none.† When it comes to drafting a strong resumà ©, elegant variation is not only acceptable, but desirable. Your resumà © is a marketing document. The product being marketed is you. The death knell of any marketing campaign is boredom. Boring products don’t sell. If your resumà © comes across as uninteresting, so do you: you probably won’t get put in the short pile; you probably won’t get interviews, and someone with a more exciting resumà © will get the job. Many resumà ©s use the same verbs and phrases over and over again. You can use â€Å"elegant variation† to engage the reader with the use of compelling, absorbing, engrossing, gripping, riveting, and fascinating action verbs and descriptive words. Here are some examples of â€Å"elegant variation† in action – Why say â€Å"led† when you can claim to have spearheaded, propelled, pioneered, orchestrated, officiated, optimized, instituted, inspired, headed, governed, enacted, directed, crafted, controlled, championed, built, or supervised. Why say you â€Å"developed† something when you can use cultivated, advanced, evolved, fostered, amplified, promoted, expanded, actualized, refined, augmented, enriched, extended, magnified, or strengthened. Why â€Å"handle† something when you can address, advance, alter, apply, centralize, compile, conduct, construct, coordinate, determine, execute, exhibit, formalize, govern, oversee, or establish it. Obviously, these words cannot and should not be substituted without understanding context and nuance. It behooves you to spend the time to find alternates whenever possible. There are numerous tools that can help your resume be more stimulating. I have a dog-eared and coffee-stained copy of Roget’s International Thesaurus. This book was a gift from my father when I was in college and is still without a doubt, the most useful resource for writing – period. When I am writing for clients, including business documents, resumà ©s, and cover letters, I keep this book very close by to help me identify synonyms to avoid repeating the same words over and over. The Internet is a wonderful source of new words to use in your career documents. Some examples that I use regularly are dictionary.com and visualthesaurus.com. Job descriptions can provide a plethora of phrases and key words that you should review. Part of what draws the attention of a hiring manager is the use of key words that are related to the job vacancy. It is very easy to identify positions online; review the roles in connection with your rà ©sumà © so you can create some compelling content as you draft your document. Employ some creativity when creating your focused, succinct, cogent, inspirational, targeted, exceptionally results-focused rà ©sumà ©. (How’s that for a few adjectives?) Entice your reader with a taste – not the plate of what you have to offer! Debra Wheatman is a human capital management strategist and the founder of Careers Done Write, a career services firm. Debra is also the Career Doctor, a career advice blog for business leaders and executives. Want to improve your English in five minutes a day? Get a subscription and start receiving our writing tips and exercises daily! Keep learning! Browse the Business Writing category, check our popular posts, or choose a related post below:Comma After i.e. and e.g.75 Idioms and Expressions That Include â€Å"Break†Sentence Adverbs

American Revolution Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words - 1

American Revolution - Essay Example The colonies thought that the government wanted to impose total control over them and make the pay expensively for things that they highly required yet could not afford them. Through the introduction of these Acts, the colonies also believed that the government would later come up with other taxation Acts, which would require them to pay more tax. B. What role did African Americans play during the American Revolution? The African American assisted the American in their revolution battle whereby they participated willingly in the military forces, even though they did this in exchange of their freedom from slavery. At first, the American avoided involving the black in the fight, but it is until when the blacks intervened that the Americans became victorious. Study shows that more than 5000 blacks participated in the battle and that the number of the Americans involved was much lower . C. Describe how the patriot achieved the unity needed to wage the War for Independence?. The patriot decided to make a declaration for independence which enables them bring people together, and gained the corporation they required to engage in the battle for independence . This was successful since, the patriots had power over all regions and population, and because the colonial states had abandoned their former government and chased the British senates away. Therefore, it became necessary to implement a new constitution in every nation .

Organisational Structure and Design Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2000 words

Organisational Structure and Design - Essay Example Nokia is seeking to understand on how to sustain business sustainability in the long term. Introduction Nokia Corporation is an international leader in cellular communications whose products have turned out to be part of a fundamental part of community’s lives around the globe. The corporation’s hi-tech and design novelties have made its trade name among the most acknowledged in the globe. Nokia seeks to regain Smartphone leadership by forming strategic partnerships with Microsoft. The main element of the corporation is to build a new winning mobile ecosystem by partnering with Microsoft. The corporation also seeks to invest in next generation disrupting technologies, bring next billion online in developing growth markets, as well as increase focus on speed, results and accountability. For the corporation to achieve its strategy, it management has to recognize the importance of formulating a strategy on corporate social responsibility. Business sustainability is managin g the triple bottom line in which companies manage their monetary, community and environmental risks duties and opportunities. The three impacts are referred to as people, profits and planet. Business sustainability represents resilience over time, where business can bounce back from shocks as it is connected to environmental, social and healthy economic systems. Business sustainability necessitates that firms adhere to the rules of sustainable development. These are economic efficiency (prosperity and innovation), social equity (health and wellness and poverty) and environmental accountability (biodiversity and climate change). Managers need to understand business sustainability in order to comprehend how businesses can reconcile the need to be socially and environmentally sustainable with demands of a high market based system, whose key dimensions of success are profit and growth. Further, business sustainability helps managers to understand more thoroughly what makes business sta y alive. How organizational sustainability will influence organizational behavior Organization culture is usually viewed as the core reason for the failure of implementing organizational change programs. Whilst tools and techniques fir change strategies exist, scholars assert that failure results because the essential culture of the organization remains the same. Successful implementation of organizational culture for business sustainability may well be largely reliant on the values and ideological underpinnings of an organization’s culture, eventually affecting how corporate sustainability is implemented. The competing values framework of organization culture discusses the connection between business sustainability and organization culture (Schein, 2004, p 54). Competing values framework demonstrates the contending demands within a business on two separate and competing proportions Competing values framework The internal-external dimension reflects whether the organization i s focused on its internal dynamics or the demands of its outside environment. The flexibility-control aspect exhibits managerial preferences for control and coordination formation. Organizations relying on control end of the model tend to lean on official mechanisms of control and coord

Identify the historical and cultural factors Essay Example for Free

Identify the historical and cultural factors Essay Identify the historical and cultural factors that contribute to the development of the learning perspective. To what extent is the learning perspective relevant today?  The study of how humans learn is a dominant component of the learning perspective. The study of behaviour in this perspective and is also commonly known as the Behaviouristic Approach, as they believe that behaviour is the only valid data in psychology. Behaviourism developed simultaneously in the United States and Russia in relation to many factors. Traditional Behaviourists believed that all organisms learn in the same way, and could be explained by the processes of classical and operant conditioning. Learning can be defined as a relatively permanent change in behaviour and/or knowledge that occurs as a result of practice and/or experience in the environment. Psychologists working within this perspective have investigated he ways in which behaviour changes, usually using laboratory experiments, and often-using non-human animals. The Learning perspective developed simultaneously in the United States and Russia with American Theorists John Watson, Albert Bandura and Russian physiologist Ivan Pavlov.  The way in which behaviour can be observed is seen as being objectively or unbiased, and this is the opposite to the theory of introspection. The unreliability of the way in which subjective data is obtained in introspection is one of the main criticisms that lead to the rise of behaviourism. In introspection the data collected in said to be subjective and therefore biased in the sense that it comes from ones own mind. Give me a dozen healthy infantsand my own specified world to bring them up in and Ill guarantee to take any one at random and train him to become any type of specialist I might select doctor, lawyerand yes, even beggarman and thief.1  John Watson 1913  Watson wrote an article titled Psychology as the behaviourist views it. This article, which set out all main assumptions and principles, sparked the rise of the behaviourist movement in 1913. Albert Bandura was the major motivator behind the social learning theory, which included cognitive factors that were not incorporated by behaviourists, as they thought behaviour was almost entirely determined by the environment. Bandura suggests that much behaviour, including aggression, is learnt from the environment through reinforcement and the process of modelling. Bandura integrated cognitive influences and called his modified theory the social learning theory. Ivan Pavlov, a Russian physiologist, whilst conducting experiments on the digestive systems on dogs stumbled across the developed principles of classical conditioning. All these factors contributed to the advancement of the learning perspective, as we know it today. Key concepts of the perspective are classical and operant conditioning, social, latent and insight learning. All concepts are built from the historical and cultural factors that gave rise to the learning perspective. Findings after conduction of experiments show a remarkable relevance to todays society and knowledge. Whether it is classical conditioning and relating findings to aversion therapy or operant conditionings relation to animal training or modifying behaviour through reinforcement and punishment. Therefore it is important to research experimenters who performed relevant experiments to relate their results to today. Classical condition is learning through association, which was accidentally found by Russian physiologist Ivan Pavlov. Pavlov was conducting experiments in relation to dogs digestive systems when he stumbled on, what is known as, classical conditioning. Pavlov noticed that dogs did not only salivate when food was placed in front of them, but they also salivated before the food was given to them, and was triggered by other factors such as upon hearing or seeing Pavlov, or the sound of footsteps. Pavlov then discovered that the anticipation of receiving the food made the dogs salivate. Pavlov then modified his experiment to test whether using a stimulus such as meat powder, which caused salivation, could be varied and a conditioned stimulus such as the ringing of a bell could also bring about the unconditioned response of salivation originally caused by being presented with the sight of the meat powder. Pavlov used a soundproof room, to minimise and limit extraneous variables so he could be sure that it was i.e. only the ringing of a bell that was affecting the salivation after the conditioned stimulus. John Watson performed another example of classical conditioning when he experimented on Little Albert in 1920. Behaviourists learning theorists such as Watson suggested that phobias were conditioned emotional responses. Certain stimuli, such as sudden loud noises, naturally cause fear reactions, and stimuli that become associated with them will acquire the same emotional responses. Little Albert was presented with a white laboratory rat to which he showed no fear response. Watson then associated the loud noise simultaneously with the presentation of the rat, Little Albert then associated fear with the rat, and was then able to generalise these response to other fluffy white objects. The study with Little Albert has serious ethical problems. Firstly that he participated in the experiment involuntary and without the consent of his mother. Also Watson reported that they hesitated about proceeding with the experiment but comforted themselves that Albert would encounter such traumatic associations when he left the sheltered environment of the nursery anyway. This is not a very good ethical defence, especially since they believed such associations might persist indefinitely and did not leave sufficient time to remove the fear afterwards, despite knowing that Albert was due to leave. Classical conditioning can be related to today with the development of therapies using classical conditioning techniques to extinguishing fear. The first technique of therapy is the systematic desensitation, which aims to extinguish the fear response of a phobia, and substitute a relaxation response to the conditional stimulus gradually, step by step. This therapy was developed mainly by Wolpe, who stated that in order for the fear to be removed gradually, a hierarchy of fear must be formed and ranked by the subject from least fearful to most fearful. The subject is then given training in deep muscle relaxation techniques so it can then be used at each stage of the hierarchy starting from the least fearful to the most and only progressing when the subject feels sufficiently relaxed. This method of treatment has a very high success rate with specific phobias, i.e. of particular animals. It is considered to work particularly well because the response of fear and relaxation is said to be impossible for them to exist at the same time. The second techniques of therapy are implosion and the flooding techniques, when both methods produce extinction of a phobias fear by the continual and dramatic presentation of the phobic or situation. Wolpe in 1960 forced a girl with a fear of cars into the back seat of a car and drove her around for 4 hours straight until her hysterical fear completely disappeared. Marks et al (1981) say that this kind of therapy works because eventually some stimulus exhaustion takes place, as you cannot scream forever and then the conditioned fear response extinguishes. The technique most similar to classical conditioning is called Aversion Therapy, and is most relevant to todays treatment of alcoholism, smoking or overeating. The technique aims to remove undesirable responses to certain stimuli by associating them with aversive stimuli, in the hope that the undesirable responses will be avoided in the future. Aversion therapy has been used to treat alcoholism, for example the person is given alcohol with a nausea-inducing drug unsuspectingly, and should then feel sick. The person associates drinking with their intestinal distress and results found that two out of three people did not have any alcohol a year later. Although it has a high success rate, ethical considerations of deliberating causing discomfort to another person through deception must be taken into account. The limitation of this type of therapy is its difficulty to generalise to other situations from where the learning took place.

John Dalton :: essays research papers

John Dalton Around September 2, 1766 John Dalton was born. He was born in Eaglesfield, England. Dalton was most known for the development of the modern atomic theory. Dalton was taught at his early ages of learning by his father and a Quaker teacher whom in 1778 Dalton would replace him after he retired. He quit that job and left his village to work with his cousin in Kendal, but he stayed a teacher. In 1793 he moved to Manchester, this is where he would remain the rest of his life. Dalton was influenced greatly by the mathematician John Gough. Dalton while in Manchester became the teacher of math and philosophy at a college. He taught there until 1799. Dalton became a chemist and physicist after his teaching jobs. Dalton did a lot of experimenting but did not test his experiments to make sure they were right. A good amount of his experiments were later proven to not be true. But his most famous theory "Dalton law" the modern atomic theory was proved true. John Dalton also published a lot of papers on atoms. His most famous article was on "absorption of gases by water and other liquids," this article contained his atomic theory. Dalton was the first person to develop a scientific atom theory, the ancient Greeks had ideas about the atom but could not prove it scientifically. Antoine Lavoisier and Dalton are responsible for the discovery of 90 natural elements. Dalton also explained the variations of water vapor in the atmosphere, the base of meteorology. Dalton’s atomic theory says that each element contained its own number of atoms. Each element had its own size and weight. Dalton’s idea said that all things are made of small bits of matter this bits of matter where too small to be seen even with a microscope. Scientist began to think these small bits of matter where responsible for chemical changes. They thought that when these bits of matter combined a chemical change took place. Dalton assumed that there was a special pattern in the elements and was partly responsible for the periodic table. Dalton in 1787 started to keep a journal. In Dalton’s journal he wrote about more than two hundred thousand observations. In 1793 he wrote a book about Meteorological observations. Dalton went to Paris in 1822 to discuss his theories with the other men of science in that time period.

Time Series

IntroductionA time series is a set of observations, xi each one being recorded at a specific time t. After being recorded, these data are rigorously studied to develop a model. This model will then be used to construct future values, in other words, to make a forecast. When looking at a time series, some questions must be asked:Does the time series have a trend or seasonality?Are their outliers? Is there constant variance over time?Essential of Good time seriesThe data must be long enough.There must be equal time gap.There must be a normal period.Example1The following plot is a time series plot of the annual number of earthquakes in the world with seismic magnitude over 7.0, for 99 consecutive years. By a time series plot, we simply mean that the variable is plotted against time.Some features of the plot:There is no trend.The mean of the series is 20.2.There is no seasonality as the data are annual data.There are no outliers.Example 2 This shows a time series of quarterly production of beer in Australia for 18 years.Some features are:There is an increasing trend. There is seasonality.There are no outliers.The Components of Time SeriesThe components of time series are factors that can bring changes to the time series:Trend component, TtWhen there is an increase or a decrease over a long period of time in the data, then we say that there is a trend. Sometimes, a trend is said to be changing direction when it goes from an increasing trend to a decreasing one. It is the result of events such as price inflation, population growth or economic changes. Seasonal component, StA seasonal pattern exists when the time series exhibits regular variations at specific time. It arises from influences such as natural conditions or social and cultural behaviors. For example, the sales of ice-cream are relatively high in summer. So, the salesman expects greater profit in summer than in winter. Cyclic component, CtIf the time series shows an up and down movement around a given period of time, it is said to have a cyclical pattern.Irregular component, ItIrregular components consist of changes that are unlikely to be repeated in a time series. Examples are floods, fires, earthquakes or cyclones.Combining the time series componentsTime series is a combination of the components which were discussed above. These components can be either combined additively or multiplicatively.Additive modelIt is linear, and the changes are made by the same amount over time.Yt = Tt + Ct + St + ItMultiplicative modelIt is non-linear such as quadratic or exponential, and the changes increase or decrease over time.Yt = Tt Ãâ€"Ct Ãâ€" St Ãâ€" ItUsesTime series can be useful in the following fields: StatisticsSignal processingEconometricsMathematical financeAstronomyEarthquake predictionsWeather forecastingImportance of Time series for businessesThere are many benefits of time series for business purposes:Helpful for study of past behaviorBusinessmen use time series to study the past behaviors and to see the trend of the sales or profit of their businesses. Helpful in forecastingTime series is a great tool for forecasting. Businesses can make a time series of the past strategies of their competitors and make an estimate of their future strategies. In this way, they make can built a better strategy and make more profits.Helpful in comparisonTime series can be used to calculate the trend of two or more branches of the same company and compare their performance. On their performances, rewards can be given. However, time series can have some limitations for a business. Sales forecasting relies on the past results to predict future expectations. But, if a company is new, there is a limited amount of data to make predictions. Even so, past results do not always indicate what the future sales will be.To fully understand this topic, we will work out this example. Example 2We will consider the actual arrival of passengers from an airport over the year 1949 to 1960. From these data, we will make a forecast.The first step is to plot the data and obtain descriptive measures such as trends or seasonal fluctuations.The second step is to check for the stationarity of the time series.StationarityA time series is said to be stationary if its mean and variance does not change over time. Obviously, not all the time series that we encounter are stationary. It is important because, most of the models we work on, assumes that the time series is stationary. If the time series has the same behavior over time, there will be a high probability that it will follow the same trend in the future.How to check for stationarity?For the graph that was plotted, we can see that it has an increasing trend with some seasonal pattern. But, it is not always evident to see whether a plot is increasing or has a seasonal trend. We can check for stationarity using the following:Plotting rolling statisticsWe plot the moving average or variance and see whether it changes with time. But, as it is a visual technique, we will take more consideration for the next test. Dickey-Fuller testIt is one of the statistical methods to check for stationarity. The null hypothesis is that the time series is non-stationary, and the alternative hypothesis is the converse.As shown below, the test consists of the test statistics and critical values at different significant levels. If the test statistics is less than the critical value, we reject the null hypothesis. Results of Dickey-Fuller Test: Test Statistic 0.815369p-value 0.991880#Lags Used 13.000000Number of Observations Used 130.000000Critical Value (1%) -3.481682Critical Value (5%) -2.884042Critical Value (10%) -2.578770According to the Dickey-Fuller test, the test statistics is less than the critical value. Therefore, the time series is not stationary. However, there are various methods to make a time series stationary.How to make a time series stationary?The assumption of stationarity is very important when modelling a time series, but most of the practical time series are not stationary. Eventually, we cannot make a time series one hundred percent stationary, most of the time, it will be with a confidence of 99%.Before going into detail, we will discuss on the reasons why the time series is not stationary. There are two major reasons to that, trend and seasonality.Having discuss the reasons, we will now talk about the techniques to make the time series stationary:TransformationLog transformation is probably the most commonly used form of transformation. DifferencingDifferencing is a widely used method to make the time series stationary. It is performed by subtracting the previous observation from the current one. When making the forecast, the process of differencing must be inverted to convert the data back to its original scale. This can be done by adding the difference value to the previous value. Using the Dickey-Fuller test we can see that the test statistic is -2.717131 and that the critical values at 1%, 5% and 10% are -3.482501, -2.884398 and -2.578960 respectivelyThe time series is stationary with 90% confidence. The second or third order differencing can be done to get better results.DecompositionIn decomposition, the time series is divided into several components mainly trend, cyclical, seasonal and irregular components. The time series can sometimes be broken down into an additive or multiplicative model.We will assume a multiplicative model for our example.Since the trend and seasonality were separated from the residuals, we can check the stationarity of the residuals.Results of Dickey-Fuller Test is test statistic is -6.332387e+00 and the critical values at 1%, 5% and 10% are -3.485122e+00, -2.885538e+00 and -2.579569e+00 respectively. We can conclude that the time series is stationary at 99% confidence.Now, we can go forward with the forecasting.Forecasting the time seriesWe will fit this time series using the ARIMA model, ARIMA is an acronym that stands for Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average. It is a linear equation similar to a linear regression. The first goal is to find the values of the predictors (p, d, q), but before finding these values, two situations in stationarity must be discussed.A strictly stationary series without any dependence among the values. In this case, we can model the residual as white noise.The second case is a series with significant dependency among the values. The predictors mainly depend on the parameters (p, d, q) of the ARIMA model:Number of AR(Auto-Regressive) terms (p)It is the number of lag observation that were included in the model. This term helps to incorporate the effect of the past values into the model.Number of MA (Moving Average) terms (q)It is the size of the moving average window, that is, this term sets the error of the model as a linear combination of the error values observed at previous time points in the past. Number of differences(d)The number of times that the raw observations are differenced.In order to obtain the values of p and q, we will use the following two plots:Autocorrelation Function, ACFThis function will measure the correlation of the time series with its lagged version. Partial Autocorrelation Function, PACFThis function measures the correlation between the time series with a lagged version of itself, controlling the values of the time series at all shorter lagsIn the ACF and PACF plots, the dotted lines are the confidence interval, these values are p and q. The value of p is obtained from the PACF plot and the value of q is obtained from the ACF plot. We can see that both p and q are 2. Now, that we have obtained p and q, we will make three different ARIMA model: AR, MA and the combined model. The RSS of each of the model will be given.AR modelMA modelCombined modelFrom the plots, it is clearly shown that the RSS of AR and MA are the same and that of the combined is much better. As the combined model give a better result, the following steps will take the values back to its original scale. The predicted results are stored.The differencing is converted the log scale. This can be done by adding the differences consecutively to the base numbers.The exponent is taken and is compared to the original scale.Therefore, we have the final result.ReferencesAarshay Jain(2016) A comprehensive beginner's guide to create a Time Series Forecast (with Codes in Python) [WWW] Available from https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2016/02/time-series-forecasting-codes-python/ [Accessed 14/04/18]Maxime Phillot (2017)How do I interpret the results in an augmented Dickey-Fuller test? [WWW] Available from https://www.quora.com/How-do-I-interpret-the-results-in-an-augmented-Dickey-Fuller-test [Accessed 23/04/18]Jason Brownlee (2016)What Is Time Series Forecasting? [WWW] Available from https://machinelearningmastery.com/time-series-forecasting/ [Accessed 23/04/18]Chris St.Jeor and Sean Ankenbruck (2018)Time Series for dummies- The 3 step process [WWW] Available from https://www.kdnuggets.com/2018/ 03/time-series-dummies-3-step-process.html [Accessed 22/04/18]Pennsylvania state university (n. d) Overview of Time Series Characteristics [WWW] Available from https://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat510/node/47 [Accessed 22/04/18] Time Series A time series is a set of observations, xi each one being recorded at a specific time t. After being recorded, these data are rigorously studied to develop a model. This model will then be used to produce future values, in other words, to make a forecast.Important Characteristics to Consider FirstWhen first looking at a time series, some questions must be asked:Does the time series has a trend or seasonality over time?Are their outliers? With time series data, the outliers are far away from the other data.Is there a long-run cycle or period?Is there constant variance over time? Essential of Good time series Data must be for a sufficient period Equal time ga Constant or normal period. Example1The following plot is a time series plot of the annual number of earthquakes in the world with seismic magnitude over 7.0, for 99 consecutive years. By a time series plot, we simply mean that the variable is plotted against time.Some features of the plot:There is no trend.The mean of the series is 20.2There is no seasonality as the data are annual data.There are no outliers. Example 2 The plot at the top of the next page shows a time series of quarterly production of beer in Australia for 18 years.Some important features are:There is an increasing trend.There is seasonality.There are no obvious outliers.The Components of Time SeriesThe components of time series are factors that can bring changes to the time series:Trend component, TtWhen there is an increase or a decrease over a long period of time in the data, then we say that there is a trend. Sometimes, a trend is said to be changing direction when it goes from an increasing trend to a decreasing one. It is the result of events such as price inflation, population growth or economic changes.Seasonal component, StA seasonal pattern exists when the time series exhibits regular fluctuations at specific time. It arises from influences such as natural conditions or social and cultural behaviors. For example, the sales of ice-cream are relatively high in summer. So, the salesman expects greater profit in summer than in winter. Cyclic component, CtIf the time series shows an up and down movement around a given period of time, it is said to have a cyclical pattern.Irregular component, ItIrregular components consist of changes that are unlikely to be repeated in a time series. Examples are floods, fires, earthquakes or cyclones.Combining the time series componentsTime series is a combination of the components which were discussed above. These components can be either combined additively or multiplicatively.Additive modelIt is linear, and the changes are made by the same amount over time.Yt = Tt + Ct + St + ItMultiplicative modelIt is non-linear such as quadratic or exponential, and the changes increase or decrease over time. Yt = Tt Ãâ€"Ct Ãâ€" St Ãâ€" ItUsesTime series can be useful in the following fields:StatisticsSignal processingEconometricsMathematical financeAstronomyEarthquake predictionsWeather forecastingImportance of Time series for businessesThere are many benefits of time series for business purposes:Helpful for study of past behaviorBusinessmen use time series to study the past behaviors and to see the trend of the sales or profit of their businesses. Helpful in forecastingTime series is a great tool for forecasting. Businesses can make a time series of the past strategies of their competitors and make an estimate of their future strategies. In this way, they make can built a better strategy and make more profits.Helpful in comparisonTime series can be used to calculate the trend of two or more branches of the same company and compare their performance. On their performances, rewards can be given. However, time series can have some limitations for a business. Sales forecasting relies on the past results to predict future expectations. But, if a company is new, there is a limited amount of data to make predictions. Even so, past results do not always indicate what the future sales will be.To fully understand this topic, we will work out this example.Example 2We will consider the actual arrival of passengers from an airport over the year 1949 to 1960. From these data, we will make a forecast. The first step is to plot the data and obtain descriptive measures such as trends or seasonal fluctuations.The second step is to check for the stationarity of the time series.StationarityA time series is said to be stationary if its mean and variance does not change over time. Obviously, not all the time series that we encounter are stationary. It is important because, most of the models we work on, assumes that the time series is stationary. If the time series has the same behavior over time, there will be a high probability that it will follow the same trend in the future.How to check for stationarity?For the graph that was plotted, we can see that it has an increasing trend with some seasonal pattern. But, it is not always evident to see whether a plot is increasing or has a seasonal trend. We can check for stationarity using the following:Plotting rolling statisticsWe plot the moving average or variance and see whether it changes with time. But, as it is a visual technique, we will take more consideration for the next test.Dickey-Fuller testIt is one of the statistical methods to check for stationarity. The null hypothesis is that the time series is non-stationary, and the alternative hypothesis is the converse.As shown below, the test consists of the test statistics and critical values at different significant levels. If the test statistics is less than the critical value, we reject the null hypothesis. Results of Dickey-Fuller Test: Test Statistic 0.815369p-value 0.991880#Lags Used 13.000000Number of Observations Used 130.000000Critical Value (1%) -3.481682Critical Value (5%) -2.884042Critical Value (10%) -2.578770According to the Dickey-Fuller test, the test statistics is less than the critical value. Therefore, the time series is not stationary. However, there are various methods to make a time series stationary.How to make a time series stationary?The assumption of stationarity is very important when modelling a time series, but most of the practical time series are not stationary. Eventually, we cannot make a time series one hundred percent stationary, most of the time, it will be with a confidence of 99%.Before going into detail, we will discuss on the reasons why the time series is not stationary. There are two major reasons to that, trend and seasonality.Having discuss the reasons, we will now talk about the techniques to make the time series stationary:TransformationLog transformation is probably the most commonly used form of transformation.DifferencingDifferencing is a widely used method to make the time series stationary. It is performed by subtracting the previous observation from the current one. When making the forecast, the process of differencing must be inverted to convert the data back to its original scale. This can be done by adding the difference value to the previous value.Using the Dickey-Fuller test we can see that the test statistic is -2.717131 and that the critical values at 1%, 5% and 10% are -3.482501, -2.884398 and -2.578960 respectivelyThe time series is stationary with 90% confidence. The second or third order differencing can be done to get better results.DecompositionIn decomposition, the time series is divided into several components mainly trend, cyclical, seasonal and irregular components.The time series can sometimes be broken down into an additive or multiplicative model.We will assume a multiplicative model for our example.Since the trend and seasonality were separated from the residuals, we can check the stationarity of the residuals.Results of Dickey-Fuller Test is test statistic is -6.332387e+00 and the critical values at 1%, 5% and 10% are -3.48 5122e+00, -2.885538e+00 and -2.579569e+00 respectively. We can conclude that the time series is stationary at 99% confidence.Now, we can go forward with the forecasting.Forecasting the time seriesWe will fit this time series using the ARIMA model, ARIMA is an acronym that stands for Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average. It is a linear equation similar to a linear regression. The first goal is to find the values of the predictors (p, d, q), but before finding these values, two situations in stationarity must be discussed. A strictly stationary series without any dependence among the values. In this case, we can model the residual as white noise.The second case is a series with significant dependency among the values.The predictors mainly depend on the parameters (p, d, q) of the ARIMA model:Number of AR(Auto-Regressive) terms (p)It is the number of lag observation that were included in the model. This term helps to incorporate the effect of the past values into the model. Number of MA (Moving Average) terms (q)It is the size of the moving average window, that is, this term sets the error of the model as a linear combination of the error values observed at previous time points in the past.Number of differences(d)The number of times that the raw observations are differenced.In order to obtain the values of p and q, we will use the following two plots:Autocorrelation Function, ACFThis function will measure the correlation of the time series with its lagged version. Partial Autocorrelation Function, PACFThis function measures the correlation between the time series with a lagged version of itself, controlling the values of the time series at all shorter lagsIn the ACF and PACF plots, the dotted lines are the confidence interval, these values are p and q. The value of p is obtained from the PACF plot and the value of q is obtained from the ACF plot. We can see that both p and q are 2.Now, that we have obtained p and q, we will make three different ARIMA model: AR, MA and the combined model. The RSS of each of the model will be given.AR modelMA modelCombined modelFrom the plots, it is clearly shown that the RSS of AR and MA are the same and that of the combined is much better. As the combined model give a better result, the following steps will take the values back to its original scale.The predicted results are stored.The differencing is converted the log scale. This can be done by adding the differences consecutively to the base numbers.The exponent is taken and is compared to the original scale.Therefore, we have the final result.ReferencesAarshay Jain(2016) A comprehensive beginner's guide to create a Time Series Forecast (with Codes in Python) [WWW] Available from https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2016/02/time-series-forecasting-codes-python/ [Accessed 14/04/18]Maxime Phillot (2017) How do I interpret the results in an augmented Dickey-Fuller test? [WWW] Available from https://www.quora.com/How-do-I-interpret-the-results-in-an-augmented-Dickey-Fuller-test [Access ed 23/04/18]Jason Brownlee (2016) What Is Time Series Forecasting? [WWW] Available from https://machinelearningmastery.com/time-series-forecasting/ [Accessed 23/04/18]Chris St.Jeor and Sean Ankenbruck (2018) Time Series for dummies- The 3 step process [WWW] Available from https://www.kdnuggets.com/2018/03/time-series-dummies-3-step-process.html [Accessed 22/04/18]Pennsylvania state university (n. d) Overview of Time Series Characteristics [WWW] Available from https://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat510/node/47 [Accessed 22/04/18]

Law week solo Essay

The article details the growing world of businesses and the law’s need to keep up to regulate new developments. A lot of companies now offer services or products online in some capacity, making them an E-Business. Some companies operate almost entirely online, such as Amazon. Other companies that operate mostly offline, such as Coca Cola, still maintain some sense of presence online. As businesses grow in these capacities, they must protect their intellectual property. Intellectual property is the creative product of a business, often one that generates revenue. Patents, trademarks, and copyrights protect you from other businesses using your products without authorization, as well as protect you from using products that you may not be authorized to use. Though there are some precautions put in place already, such as trademarks, patents, and copyrights, Legislation is constantly working to make sure all parties are protected as the world of E-business evolves. LEGAL ISSUE In 1 to 3 sentences, identify the legal business issues raised in the article. The article details the tactics practiced by cyber-squatters. When the internet became a legitimate vehicle to do business with, cyber-squatters purchased domain names that were trademarks of businesses. For example, Ford Motors would have to buy back the domain name to Ford. com to protect their trademark and not lose potential business. However, this was dealt with when congress passed the Anti Cyber squatting Consumer Protection Act (ACCPA). MANAGERIAL PERSPECTIVE Discuss how the legal issues affect business. For example, could the problems have been avoided? Explain. Discuss realistic solutions supported by sound legal and business principles. Protection of intellectual property is extremely important to any business. As a responsible manager or business owner, or even an employee, you must protect the creative asset of your firm. The internet had unforeseen capabilities to be a very useful business application. A company needs to be aware of cyber squatters, potential business opportunities, and take methods to protect their trademarks and copyrights. Cyber squatters are people who use domain names that are the same or similar to a well known organization. This is done with the intent of selling it to the highest bidder, often the organization itself. The intent is to make profits. Other times, this is done to generate more website traffic, which also usually leads to increased profits, all at the expense of the major organization. Cyber squatters also target new companies that may become valuable in the future by purchasing domain names before the company gets its trademarks and copyrights. When the internet was initially launched, many businesses did not foresee it being a valuable business application. It was written off by many, but some with foresight saw an opportunity to take advantage of these businesses. While many businesses did not enroll themselves in online ventures, cyber squatters decided to purchase domain names that resembled the businesses. This led way to a lot of cyber crime against corporations. Additionally, many businesses lost out on potential profits by not taking advantage of the internet. As stated before, the most important thing a business can do is protect its intellectual property. In addition to copyrights, trademarks, and patents, certain acts have been passed like the ACCPA to help protect businesses and people. While there are avenues put in place to help protect intellectual property, these measures are not entirely foolproof. The best way to protect anything is to have foresight and defend it before a problem arises. A new company or IP may be protected by seeking patents, copyrights, and trademarks as soon as the product or company has been created. While it may seem like a hassle at first, it can do a lot of protection in the long run. Also, a product can be the most creative and unique attributes possible, making it easier to prove bad faith in court. When a person or company has taken measures to protect themselves with copyright and similar precautions, they stand a much better chance of winning in the legal realm. This way, everybody is protected, and those who intend to do harm are far more likely to be prosecuted under the law.

Nature Versus Civilization essays

Nature Versus Civilization essays In comparing and contrasting Civilization Over Nature by Michael Heiman with Nature Over Civilization by Robert Kuhn McGregor I have discovered that their main themes over lap in one or more ways. They both define Nature in totally different aspects. Therefore that is way their main themes appear to be so much different. Michael Heiman argues that nature was put aside for the capitalistic views of the nineteenth century. This then implies that nature was put aside for the production of civilization. Therefore associating the human race strictly with civilization and not nature. Nature is only made up of the landscape and the animals and plants within it. In Heimans example of this he speaks of the exploitation of the Hudson Valley for the transportation of goods across the country. He tells of how the destruction of this area throughout the nineteenth century was overlooked by the artists and tour guides that traveled this route. The viewpoints that Heiman carried throughout his essay had a homocentric orientation towards civilization. As for Heimans main theme he proposes that civilization was the ultimate reality. As for McGregor he proposed to agree with the biocentric view that humans and plants and animals were all living actors in the play of life therefore making humans a part of nature as well. As for the civilization aspect of it all he goes on to explain that animals have their own civilizations in which some of them change the environment in the same ways as our civilization. In the end of it all he believes that nature is the ultimate reality. In order to compare and contrast we have to first see the main part where they clash. Heiman sees nature as the landscape, plants, and animals therefore making humans the synonym for civilization. McGregor on the other hand says that nature has its own civilization just as humans do. So humans are now a ...

Christmas Party Themes for Every Friend Group [Guest Post]

Christmas Party Themes for Every Friend Group [Guest Post] Whether this is your first Christmas in college or your last, it’s a long-awaited season of festivities. In the dorms, your friends are just a short walk away and there are plenty of events to choose from. In an apartment, you have the freedom to decorate an entire space, transforming it into a magical winter wonderland - don’t forget the photo booth! But year after year it seems more difficult to host a party that feels outside the box. That’s why we’ve put together this guide to help you plan your party based on the interests of you and your friend group. The Foodies After a week of dining hall food, you’ll already be dreaming of mom’s home cooking. If you’re in the dorms without a kitchen, make things interesting by hosting a homemade potluck. The caveat is that you can only use dorm room essentials (like a microwave). See who can craft the most delicious snack without a full kitchen. Hint: try your hand at no-bake desserts for a sweet treat that will be the talk of the party. If you’ve grown out of dorm life, host a Masterchef: Holiday Edition party. Give each person one ingredient that has to be the central flavor in their dish, and see what they come up with. You can keep it traditional with ingredients like peppermint and rosemary, or get creative with unconventional ingredients like bacon and seaweed - holiday-themed sushi, anyone? The Mathletes Is everyone in your group a math major or engineer? Bring numbers and coding into the equation. For those who love math, take gingerbread making to the next level. Include rules that require the builders to use specific angles in their design or an exact number of certain ingredients. Extra points if you bake the gingerbread shapes yourself so people can build structures that differ from the traditional house. If your friends are engineers, host a unique â€Å"gift† swap. Similar to Secret Santa, assign everyone a buddy. Then, have each person code a special card or message. Show the designs at the party and vote on the most creative one! Alternatively, you can turn this into a GIF challenge (especially for those who don’t code). Who doesn’t love a good GIF? The Pop Culture Buffs Whether your friends are aspiring actors and actresses, or simply in tune with the latest and greatest shows, you can’t help but have a Christmas movie marathon. Our vote is Elf. Take it from Buddy, â€Å"the best way to spread Christmas cheer is singing loud for all to hear.† That’s right, you won’t just be watching a movie, you’ll be playing themed games too. Start off with Pin the Face on the Elf. You can print the Christmas game here. You’ll also need to print out a variety of faces to stick on the elf’s body. For extra personalization, print the face of every guest out. Alternatively, you can choose everyone’s favorite celebrity. Next, have a sing-off. Someone will start singing a popular song. They’ll end on a word that’s common in many carols. The next person will start with that word and continue with lyrics from another song. Whoever can’t think of a new carol loses. The Know-It-Alls Are you that group that always knows random facts? If so, go head-to-head in a seasonal version of Holiday Jeopardy. From festive facts to seasonal puns, see who is the ultimate holiday aficionado. Make sure you designate a host for the game to moderate and provide small prizes for the winners. Once Jeopardy is over, switch to lighthearted games like Heads Up, Taboo or Pictionary. Create your own cards with inside jokes to keep it interesting. The Artists Who doesn’t love a sip and wine party? Instead of painting the same picture, let your creative skills run wild and make gifts for friends! Assign everyone a partner to make a gift for, but keep it a secret. Provide plain plates, mugs or glasses to paint. You can use paint, paint pens or other mediums. You’ll likely need to set the gifts in the oven, so remember to leave time for that. Grab a glass of wine and get painting! Once everyone is done and the gifts are set, place each piece out on the table. Vote who it was made for to see which friends you know best! Bonus: Make everyone wear homemade ugly Christmas sweaters to showcase their creative skills. The Accountants If you and your friends are in business or accounting, you’re used to working with money all the time. Put a unique spin money management by seeing how far everyone can stretch a dollar (or ten), at a thrift store. There are a few different ways you can interpret this theme. One is a scavenger hunt. Create a list of general items (ex. something green, something with glitter). Give everyone a time limit and see who can come back with the most unique items. Assign someone to be the judge and choose the winning team. Alternatively, you can throw a costume party. Everyone has $10 to come up with the most crazy holiday costume. The best outfit wins bragging rights for the next year. Now that you have a list of activities in mind, get planning! Don’t forget to check off all the party essentials: food, decorations, music, games, and, of course, a good group of friends. Take lots of pictures to send to Mom and Dad and show them that they taught you to host a party in style. Afterwards, you just have to get through those final papers and tests, and you’re on your way to a month-long winter break. Time for party number two (or three or four) with family and friends back home. Don’t forget to show them the tricks you learned from hosting your own holiday party! Author: Alex Heinz Alex Heinz loves everything DIY including sewing, crafting home decor, and cooking meals for friends. When shes not creating or writing, you can find her playing with her energetic dog, at the beach, or exploring new hikes.

Evaluating And Meeting Security Needs Research Paper

Evaluating And Meeting Security Needs - Research Paper Example This has numerous benefits, but also, great risks and vulnerabilities to the data. The most significant threat is that, if the data is tampered with or changed, it is all compromised at once. This paper will analyze the information security needs of the Light Walkers Company Ltd, and propose ways for meeting those needs within a network information systems architecture framework. The Light Walkers Company Ltd runs on an enterprise system structure where all the data and information system functions are centralized. The employment and integration of this system brings about great advantages to the organization. The limitations, though few, can be analyzed (Dhilon, 2006). One of the major concerns is the protection of data from intruders. Because of the centralization if its functions, Light Walkers Ltd is at a great risk of intrusion and illegal access to its files. If it is hacked, the hacker/intruder would have access to all their information. If it is infected by a virus, all their business files, due to their centrality, will also be damaged (Arison & Torkzadet, 2008). Unauthorized access from within the organization is also another security risk. Unauthorized personnel may access the system and alter data. This can happen accidentally or with intended malice, so as to gain from the data alteration. For these reasons, access to files in an information system running on enterprise architecture needs to be regularly and strictly monitored. In such a system, alteration or deletion of data may have disastrous effects. Another form of risk that the data faces is the risk of loss. As a result of the centralization of its functions, most information regarding the operation of Light Walkers Ltd is kept close together. If loss or damage was to occur to the storage and operating station, all the data would be lost at once. These are some of the security needs faced by this organization. Many of these problems are faced by organizations or companies running information systems on this platform (Arison & Torkzadet, 2008). One of the major problems that face centralization of data is the possibility of intrusion. To prevent this breach, the information should be kept in a secure place where access is heavily restricted. If the information is being transferred over a network, the information must be encrypted to prevent tampering with the information as it crosses the network. There are several ways in which intruders can access, change, tamper or modify the data (Dhilon, 2006). The problem of unauthorized access is also rampant in enterprise integrated systems. This can be handled by placing privileges on the personnel that have access to the data. This helps monitor who has had access to the systems and the changes that they have made. Also, because of the risk of tracking, administrators are advised to regularly change their credentials to achieve a high level of security (Dhilon, 2006). The use of ‘once off’ passwords should also be employed to levels where critical data is stored. This reduces risk of unauthorized access. Viruses and malicious computer programs are designed to damage a system. These programs usually attack vulnerable systems, and the damage they cause can be monumental because of the unexpected behavior of these programs. Light Walkers Ltd should have fully activated and

To what extent does personality predicts employee performance Essay - 3

To what extent does personality predicts employee performance - Essay Example Le et al., (2011) found that there exists the curvilinear associations between personality traits, which include emotional stability, conscientiousness, job performance scopes, including counterproductive work behaviours, organisational citizenship behaviours , task performance and job performance (Le et al. 113). By using this approach, the researchers study some features of personalities of different people, and then compare those people in an attempt to draw some conclusion about general rules about personality. Thus, this method involves assessing some interesting variable in a large group of individuals and then arrive out some general rules about personality. Thus, nomothetic approach can be used to find how heredity or genetic plays a pivotal role in job performance of an employee. However, nomothetic approach has some drawbacks. It is to be noted that extrapolations from group outcomes may not be applicable to an individual, and this may offer shallow understanding. (Ashton xxiii). Psychologist like Erikson (1950) & Rogers (1959), Kelly (1963) gives a different explanation of personality as they visualise it from the interface with the environment and the impact of cultural and social processes. Thus, an individual’s personality is open to change and flexible, and each individual has a unique personality that cannot be grouped or classified into any classification. This nurture approach to personality does not make itself to the measurement of personality, as each individual is considered to be unique. From the company point of view, it is less likely to form part of an evaluation process. Nonetheless, some organisations do use the concept of self-concept as part of their development and management training programmes, and it could form part of the performance management process, especially, if a 360-degree feedback approach is used (Smith , Farmer & Yellowley

Women Role in Society Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Women Role in Society - Research Paper Example Yet, in a modern and civilized society, equally they should be treated. One way to determine how women are being treated in our society today is to examine their roles. We want to look at issues such as domestic violence, negative and positive expectations thrust upon women, and whether or not males demonstrate superiority over women. We will do this briefly by examining and analyzing two stories. One is a book by Chinua Achebe titled ‘Things Fall Apart’, while the other is an essay by Maxine Hong Kingston titled ‘No Name Women’. Things Fall Apart This novel is quite interesting as it focuses on the tribal culture in Nigeria. We see the main character, Okonkwo, as being quite violent, all the while also having an ambitious outlook in life. Through the book, we see him as being a person who espouses masculinity. He exerts his manliness time and time again and certainly believes he is superior to women. At one point he brutally beats his wife in order to prove a point. This seems to communicate that domestic abuse is ripe is the cultural setting of this book. The author seems to be drawing awareness to the notion that the role of women in some cultures is one of subservience to the male. In this particular story, the reader witness’s masculinity being demonstrated in society by the beating and emotional distress women suffer at the hands of the men in the tribe. The role of women in this novel is perhaps best portrayed by one of the minor characters, Ezinma. Being the daughter of Oknonkwo, it is interesting to learn more about their relationship. The father quite often expresses his wish that Ezinma would have been born a girl, yet we get the picture that deep down inside he is quite proud of her. Perhaps she is even his favorite daughter. It is one of the only glimpses we have, however, of him really endearing himself to women, either inside or outside of his family. Ezinma does not buy into the notion that role of a women is sim ply to be submissive to the man. She becomes quite bold in the story and often contradicts the wishes of her own father. We get the picture that she could grow up to be a social advocate for woman’s causes. In the end, she supports her father and helps him out politically, but we get the idea that she wants much more and that her father will eventually allow her to adopt a different role. There have been numerous beautiful females like Ezinma over the years that have gradually reshaped the way society view women. Over time, they have redefined the way men are expected to behave towards women in a civilized and cultured society. The author appears to be hinting at that in this book. This student looked a bit further into the life of the author, Chinua Achebe, to discover that his ambition was to rewrite the perception of the West towards Africa. He felt that the continent was unjustly being targeted as uncivilized in many respect, particularly in its treatment of women and the poor. To get his point across, he wrote sensationalized novels, such as ‘Things Fall Apart’ in order to express that Africa is truly a misunderstood culture. Sure, it is different than the West and many practices are antiquated, but times are changing. No Name Woman No Name Woman is just one chapter of a larger novel that takes place in China. This one chapter alone is frequently used to analyze the role women in Asia, particular in Chinese society. We learn in this brief account that women who gave into sexual temptation were treated like the character in the Scarlet Letter – they were shunned by society. The main character’s aunt, for example, had to flea her village when it was

The Complex Nature Of Human Resource Planning Commerce Essay

The Complex Nature Of Human Resource Planning Commerce Essay This report is about the complex nature of human resource planning. Human resource planning is the process whereby a business determines the amount of staff support that they will need in order to fulfil business needs and customer demands. It is the base upon which all the other human resource activities rest. It simply involves forecasting what staff is needed and making sure that the steps are taken to meet those needs. Human resource planning can also be described as the on-going process of systematic planning to achieve optimum use of an organisations most valuable asset which would be its human resources. It is the way in which managers ensure that they have the right number and kinds of capable people in the right places at the right times. Through human resource planning, organisations avoid sudden people shortages and surpluses. It is concerned with identifying the organisations demand for human resources and demand for human resource and devising means to ensure that a sufficient supply of labour is available to meet that demand. Human resource planning can be defined as the way by which you determine the manpower requirements and the way of meeting those requirements in order to carry out an integrated plan at the organisation. According to Quinn Mills (1983) human resource planning is a decision making process combining three vital actions: Identifying and acquiring the right number of people with the proper skills Motivating the staff in order to achieve high performance within the organisation Creating interactive links between business objectives and planning activities The most popular way of describing human resource planning is having the Right person at the Right place at the Right time. Aims of human resource planning The main aim of human resource planning is to make sure that the organisation has the right number of staff with the right skills needed in order to meet forecast requirements. According to Reilly there are a couple of different reasons why some businesses choose to take part in some form of human resource planning. Reilly identifies three main reasons as to why businesses engage in human resource planning: Planning for substantive reasons- The reason for this type of planning is to have a practical effect by enhancing the use of resources in the organisation or making them more flexible. It also helps the business to identify potential problems and minimises the chances of making a bad decision. Planning due to the benefits it gives the organisation-The reason for this type of planning is due to business understanding the present human resources in order to confront the future human resources. This type of planning gives the business a better understanding of how many employees they have at present and how many they need to take on or let go to deal with the future. For example-The human resource planning department will analyse how many employees they have at present and they will try and forecast how many employees they will need to take on in the future. If the business is busier around the Christmas period then the human resource planning department will look at taking on more staff in order to deal with increased demands. Planning for organisational reasons- The reason for this type of planning is that it communicates the businesses plans and helps the employees to support them and adhere to them. This type of planning is all about relating the business plans to the human resource planning department and integrating the two more efficiently. For example-If the human resource department has plans to take on 10 new employees in 2013 due to a high workload for existing employees, it lets the existing employees know that the high workload is temporary and encourages the employees to support the business and respect the decisions that are made. The Human Resource Planning Model The human resource planning model is a method that the human resource department in a business can use to ensure that they have enough employees and the right ones to carry out the various functions of the business. This human resource planning model consists of three key parts, including predicting the amount of employees that your company needs, checking if the supply of potential employees meets your demand and finally learning how to balance the supply and demand of employees. The three steps are as follows: Forecasting staffing needs Evaluating Supply Balancing Supply and Demand Forecasting Staffing Needs: There are a couple of different ways to forecast in order to predict how many employees you need to run your business and which roles these employees need to fill. There are four main factors to consider when forecasting staffing needs: The situation of the economy- The way in which the economy is performing is a critical factor when youre looking at human resource planning. You need to be able to distinguish whether or not your company needs to recruit more staff or whether your company is going to downsize. In these economic conditions a lot of companies are looking at their human resource planning and making the crucial decisions. For example: If the economy is in recession and business is quiet, a company is less likely to be planning on taking on new staff. On the other hand, if the economy is booming and business is busy a company will be more likely to be recruiting more staff. On the 1st of November 2012, McDonalds announced that they will be taking on over 700 new employees in the next 2years in Ireland. McDonalds human resource planning department are starting the recruitment process in January 2013. On the 5th of October 2012, Cork Airport announced that they will be cutting over 32 jobs. The human resource department of Cork airport explained that the main reason for the plans to cut jobs was simply due to the decline in the economy. The Internal finance of the business- The internal finance of a business will depend on whether or not youre going to invest in new staff. It all depends on how much money you have as a business. The human resource department of a business is usually given a yearly budget. They then look at the staff levels and plan on whether or not to invest in more staff. They also look at things at critical factors affecting staff levels such as how many employees are retiring in the coming year, is there anybody out on maternity leave etc. Internal finance is a main factor in forecasting staffing needs. For example: If the human resource department plans to take on 15 new employees in 2012, there has to be money in the business for this to be a viable. The demand for your product or service- Obviously the demand for when it comes to forecasting your staffing needs and requirements, the demand for your product or service is crucial. If your product or service is in high demand then you will be looking at taking on more staff. However if the demand for your product or service is in low demand then you as a business may need to look at cutting your employees hours or letting some employees go. The demand for your product or service may be in high demand at certain times of the year and you may need to take on extra staff in order to meet demands. For Example: Smyths Toys always take on extra staff around the Christmas period as this is their busiest time of the year. When the human resource planning department at Smyths Toys forecasts their staffing needs, they look at the demand for service. Therefore when they are in their busiest time of the year, they automatically forecast that they will need additional staff in order to deal with the high demand. The Growth expectations of your business- The growth expectations of your business are another factor to consider when forecasting staff. If your business is growing rapidly then you may need to take on more staff. Forecasting the amount of staff you will need in the future will all depend on how well your business is growing. For example: The human resource planning department of McDonalds will look at their growth expectations for the next 6months, 12months, 18months etc. They will then determine how many employees they will need in order to meet the growth rate of their business. By 2015 they hope to open 12 new stores across Ireland. The human resource planning department have already forecasted that they plan to take on 700 new employees. Therefore the growth expectations of the business are a key component on forecasting the staffing needs. Evaluating Supply: This consists of analysing internally and externally. This step is all about checking the amount of staff you have currently in your organisation and checking the amount of potential staff outside of the business. The human resource planning department evaluate the internal staff in the first step when they are forecasting staffing requirements for the future. In order to evaluate the external staff the human resource planning department will look at the demographics of the staff that is available to them. This can include factors such as education and the unemployment rate of the country. When the human resource planning department are evaluating supply there are a couple of key areas they look at including: The existing number of staff employed(broken down by occupation, skill and potential) Potential losses the business may incur due to staff leaving(employee turnover) Potential vacancies through internal promotion The effect of changing work condition(recession may lead to absenteeism) The amount of supply within the business The amount of supply from outside of the business in the national and local labour markets By the business evaultaing all of these areas it will help them determine whether they have access to the number and types of employees that they need in order to fulfil their staffing forecasts. For example: The human resource planning department at BMW in Germany evaluated the supply of employees internally and they have realised that over 50% of their employees would be over the age of 50 by 2020.The human resource planning department evaluated externally in order to find out how much potential employees would be available to them if they decided to take on new employees. By evaluating externally they realised that there was a shortage of qualified engineers in Germany. When evaluating externally they looked at education as a factor, they found that every year the number of engineering graduates are declining. This proves the importance of evaluating supply externally. The human resource planning department of BMW have put plans in place in order to increase the amount of students doing engineering courses. The human resource planning department have offered 18month internships for qualified engineering graduates. This is a good way on increasing the supply of employees ex ternally. Balancing Supply and Demand: Balancing supply and demand is the third step in the human resource planning process. This step is concerned with how the business is going to balance the demand of employees they need with the supply of employees available. The human resource planning department look at the amount of employees that they need and the look at the amount of employees that are available. By the human resource planning department doing this, it helps them to make sure that they avoid an employee shortage and surplus within the business. If the human resource planning department realise that there is a shortage of employees in the business, they must determine what type of recruiting efforts that they will participate in to attract the employees they need in order to fill the needs within the business. In order for the human resource planning department to balance the supply and demand they have to determine the full-time and part-time needs. The human resource planning department will look at the busines ses supply of full-time workers and the demand for full-time work out in the workforce. They look at the businesses needs for part-time workers and look and see if there are part-time workers available in labour markets. If the human resource planning department realise that the business have a surplus amount of employees they may consider employee layoffs, retirements and situations where some employees may need to be demoted. This step in the human resource planning process is all about determining the amount of employees that they need and how many employees are out their willing to work for them. The crucial part of this step is making sure that they balance. For Example: The human resource planning department of Dunnes Stores main aim in the final step of the human resource planning process is to balance the supply and demand of the employees available to the business. The human resource planning department at Dunnes Stores looks at how many employees they need and how many employees are in the workforce available to do the work with the necessary skills. The human resource planning department of Dunnes Stores must make sure that they dont end up with a shortage of employees or a surplus of employees. They need to get the balance just right in order to complete the human resource planning process correctly. Importance of Human Resource Planning Human resource planning is one of the most important resources in management and needs to be used efficiently. Success, stability and growth of a business depend on its ability in acquiring, utilising and developing the human resources for the benefit of a business. In recent years, Human resource planning has become increasingly important due to the high level of competition that todays businesses face. Without effective human resource planning, a company may face the danger of being unable to meet targets because employees with the necessary skills are unavailable. In my own opinion, I think that human resource planning is extremely important for every type of business. The main reason I think human resource planning is important is because by a business planning their human resources they can analyse their staffing needs for the future and identify any vacancies which may arise, they can save money through limited recruitment and selection and it helps motivate employees. Future staffing needs-The business is able to find out how much staff they will need in the future. It helps the business to identify the number of jobs which will become vacant in the near future. The human resource planning process is conducted for the entire business; therefore staffing requirements for every department can be identified. This allows the human resource department to identify any vacancies. For example: The human resource planning department of Dunnes Stores looks at the entire organisations staffing needs and identifies any vacancies that may arise in the future. Therefore the human resource department can identify if anyone is retiring or going on maternity leave. If there is somebody going on maternity leave in the finance department, the human resource planning department can plan to take on a temporary replacement. On the other hand if there is an employee in the marketing department retiring, then they will look at the marketing department and figure out if they need to take on a permanent replacement. Human resource planning is important as it highlights any vacancies in an organisation and prevents any sudden staffing shortages or surpluses. Cost savings-The recruitment and selection process can be very costly. Many businesses spend a large amount of money on this. Therefore by using the human resource planning process a company will save money as they arent wasting money taking on staff that is not necessary. Recruitment and selection will only be carried out if it is extremely necessary. The human resource planning process helps to identify whether recruitment and selection are necessary or not. For example: By Dunnes Stores planning their human resources effectively and efficiently they will save money. They will know exactly how many staff that they have at present. They will be able to determine if they under staffed or over staffed and whether they need to spend money on the recruitment and selection process. Human resource planning is important to Dunes Stores as saves them money by only highlighting when it is absolutely necessary to recruit new staff. Therefore they arent spending money on taking on new staff if they dont need them. Motivation-Human resource planning makes performance appraisal more meaningful. Employees receive feedback in the performance appraisal and they are informed of their chances of future progression in the company. As a result of this, the employees will be more motivated to work harder and try harder to impress. This shows the importance of human resource planning. For example: By Dunnes Stores engaging in human resource planning they will know exactly what promotions are available. So if the Sales Manager is going on maternity leave, then when the assistant sales manager is having the performance appraisal, she may be told if you improve on certain skill, you may be in line for promotion and may be considered when the sales manager goes on maternity leave. This will motivate the assistant sales manager to improve on certain skills and work harder in order to prove that she would be capable for the sales manager position. Human resource planning shows its importance in the performance appraisal as the business knows exactly when there is promotions available and this is turn motivates employees to work harder and prove that they are worthy of a promotion. According to Farnham human resource planning is extremely important as it encourages employers to establish clear and explicit links between their business plans and the human resource plans in order to integrate them more effectively and efficiently. He feels that by a business engaging in human resource planning it can benefit them as the business will have more control over staffing costs and on the number of staff employed. It ensures that a business is not over-staffed or under-staffed. He also feels that through human resource planning, employers can make more informed decisions about the skills and attitude mix in the business. Farnham states that human resource planning also provides a profile of the current staff in the business in regards to age, sex, gender, disability etc. By having this information readily available to them, a business is in a better position to make informed decisions and make sure that they are an equal opportunity organisation. Advantages of Human Resource Planning Meeting Staffing Requirements One of the advantages of human resource planning is that it improves the utilisation of human resources by helping the human resource planning managers to forecast the staffing needs in terms of both numbers as well as the types of skills that the business requires. By the human resource planning managers identifying the businesses short-term and long-term goals it allows them to predict their human resource requirements. In order for the human resource planning managers predict the staffing requirements successfully, they need to establish what skills, abilities and knowledge is required in order to meet the businesses goals. By human resource planning being carried out in a business, it helps the human resources planning managers to identify any potential replacements that they might need in order to fulfil the staffing requirements. Every year many employees either retire or leave companies that they are employed in. By carrying out human resource planning it helps the human resou rce department find replacements for these employees. These replacements may be either from inside the business or outside of the business. Therefore by carrying out human resource planning in a business it gives the advantage of meeting staffing needs. This is one of the main advantages of carrying out human resource planning in a business. Employee Development One of the main advantages of human resource planning is that it improves employee development. The human resource planning department identify employees within the business that could potentially move into a management position within the company. The human resource planning department can then implement certain actions that will help the potential employees develop their management skills. Human resource planning encourages the business to conduct performance appraisals with their employees. By conducting performance appraisals on their employees, it helps the human resource planning department to see what particular skills an employee is lacking and what type of training opportunities the employee should receive. Therefore human resource planning encourages and improves employee development. Continuous Evaluation By human resource planning managers taking part in the human resource planning process, it helps them to measure and access outcomes that make it possible to monitor the progress of the business and the employees. The human resource planning department make the human resource plan and they will usually include various millstones in order to gauge success. The future may be different than expected so the human resource planning department must be flexible enough for the business to manage the change. By a business taking part in human resource planning, it benefits them as the know exactly what is happening within the company at present, how many employees they have at present, how well they are doing currently and how the employees at performing at present. By the human resource planning department carrying out continuous evaluation they are able to meet new technological changes. Human resource planning helps to be effective in the use of technological progress. In order for the hum an resource planning department to meet the challenge of new technology, they make sure that existing employees are retrained and when they are recruiting new employees, they have the up-to-date technological knowledge. Proactive Human resource planning takes a proactive approach in order to meet the companys needs which are obviously an advantage for the company. By the human resource planning department taking a proactive approach it enables them to anticipate future needs, evaluate the companys current workforce and helps them determine what actions that they should prepare to take for the future. The advantage of having a proactive approach in human resource planning is that the businesses consider all aspects and the potential implications of different actions before acting. Businesses without human resource planning react to the employees needs without allowing themselves enough time to think and consider all actions. Businesses with human resource planning avoid making rushed and rash decisions. Therefore an advantage of human resource planning would be proactive businesses. Environmental Factors Through effective human resource planning, the human resource planning department can help the business to respond to environmental factors such as legislation, changing demographics, globalisation and technology. Through environmental scanning, the human resource planning department can anticipate different changes that will affect the businesses workforce and the businesses plan. An advantage of human resource planning is being able to anticipate the different environmental factors which will affect the business and its employees. The human resource planning department can predict and plan in anticipation for any changes in the environmental factors that may affect their business or their staffing requirements. The human resource planning department can prepare in advance for factors such as an aging population and an older workforce. By the human resource planning department, thinking ahead and taking the environmental factors into account, they help the business to avoid possible skill shortages in the future. By the human resource planning department failing to prepare for the environmental factors it can have a negative impact on the business. Disadvantages of Human Resource Planning Lack of Support During the last 25years, human resource planning has become a strategic partner in most business decisions. Before this it was known as personnel administration, a department responsible for processing payroll, handing out job application forms and enrolling employees in the business. One disadvantage of human resource planning is that without the support of management and the employees; it will not work or be effective. In order for human resource planning to be effective, the managers and the employees must support the human resource plans one hundred per cent. The management dont always see human resource planning as an essential element in the businesses long term and strategic goals. The employees of a business dont always support human resource planning due to the fact that they dont fully understand what their role is in the business. Culture Shift One major disadvantage of human resource planning relates to the current cultural thinking of the employees in a business. Many employees work in the same style they were originally trained in. These types of old-school employees have learned to perform their work efficiently and they take great pride in their ability to perform well in the business. When a business decides to take a new approach by implementing human resource planning into the business, these types of employees feel threatened. The employees current skills may not be able to be transferred to the businesses new way of doing things; therefore some of the employees will need to learn the new system. Larger Initial Investment A business must invest time and money into their human resource planning to become fully functional this is a disadvantage for businesses that dont have excess cash to invest into their human resource department. A business would also have to invest money into training their employees into understanding human resource planning. The employees would need to be thought how to research alternative approaches to planning, how to evaluate which approach fits the business the best and finally to implement that chosen process. The human resource planning manager would need to be able to determine how the new process fits in with their current employees and they would then have to assign new responsibilities to each employee. Once the employees are assigned their new responsibility, they will need additional training in order to help get them use to it. They will each need to learn what their new role in the business is each employee will need. This would be one disadvantage to human resource planning; the initial capital invested. The Strategic Human Resource Planning Process The strategic human resource planning process consists of four steps: Assessing the current human resource capacity Forecasting human resource requirements Gap analysis Developing human resource strategies to support business strategies Assessing the current human resource capacity Based on the businesses strategic plan, the first step in the strategic planning process is to analyse the current human resource capacity of the business. The knowledge, skills and abilities of the current staff in the business need to be identified. A way in which this can be done is by developing a skills inventory for each employee in the business. The skills inventory should go beyond the skills needed for the particular position. The business should list all the skills each employee has demonstrated. The education levels or additional training and development courses that they have participated in should also be included. Forecasting Human Resource Requirements The second step is to forecast human resource needs for the future, based on the strategic goals of the business. Realistic forecasting of human resources involves predicting both demand and supply. In order for the business to forecast the human resource requirements, they need to be able to answer the following questions: How many employees is required in order to achieve the strategic goals of the business? What jobs will need to be filled? What skill sets will people need? When forecasting demands for human resources, the business must also identify the challenges that they will face in meeting their staffing needs based on the external environment. In order for the business to determine external impacts, they should consider the following factors: How does the current economy affect the businesses ability to attract new employees? What changes are occurring in the Irish labour market? Gap Analysis This step is concerned about determining the gap between where the business wants to be in the future and where the business is currently. The gap analysis involves identifying the number of staff and the skills and abilities required in the future in comparison to the current situation the company are in. The business should ask themselves the following questions: What new jobs will the business need? What new skills will the business require? Do the businesses current employees have the right skills? Does the business have enough mangers? Developing Human resource strategies to support business strategies There are five ways in which a business can meet their needs in the future: Restructuring-This involves reducing staff by termination, reorganising work units to be more efficient Training and development-This involves providing staff with training to take on new roles, providing current staff with development opportunities to prepare them for future jobs in the business. Recruitment-This involves recruiting new staff with the skill and abilities that the business will need in the future. Outsourcing-This involves using external individuals or businesses to complete some tasks Collaboration-This involves allowing employees to visit other businesses to gain skills and insight. It involves working together with other businesses to prepare future leaders by sharing in the development of promising employees. Case Study BMWs Human Resource Planning Practices In 2007, Human resource planning managers at the BMW manufacturing plant in Germany came up with the Today for Tomorrow project. Human resource managers realised that with Germanys ageing population, by 2020 roughly half of BMWs 18000 workers in Germany will be over the age of 50. By 2020, more than a fifth of the country will be over 65.Faced with a probable decline in productivity, human resource managers reacted in an unusual and innovative way. For BMW, it is a matter of necessity, like many industries in Western countries; the company faces the challenge of trying to remain globally competitive with an experienced but ageing workforce. The human resource planning manager believed that their older workers have more patience and skills than the younger workers. The human resource planning manager in Germany believes that they are grappling with an ageing workforce. With the country also facing a shortage of qualified engineers, the human resource planning department have decided that its best to keep good workers on the job as long as possible and adapting the manufacturing factories to their needs. The human resource planning departmen